Dangerous Winter Storm Shifts, Now Aiming at Missouri

We knew that Missouri was likely to face some elements of an incoming dangerous storm, but now the computer models are showing a shift in direction that is putting Missouri in the path for some of the worst weather this storm will be dropping.

As I've said before, my wife is a meteorologist and she helps me understand a lot of the detailed weather things that are beyond my IQ. I also depend a lot on meteorologist Travis Roberts who has just broken down what we can expect from the incoming major winter weather system. I highly recommend checking out the video Travis shared today as he does a better job than I can of explaining the dangers of this storm, but I'll add my two cents, too.

Now, here's the short version of what Travis shared. By Saturday afternoon around 4pm, this storm will be fully impacting Missouri with snow canvasing the state.

The heaviest snow should continue Saturday night with Missouri still being in the middle of the worst of this system around 7pm.

The newest model runs are showing there might be a dry time in between storms, but once the snow stops early Saturday night, the storm isn't even close to done. The heaviest snow for Missouri will likely begin impacting starting early Sunday.

By the time we reach early Sunday morning, the storm will continue to drop snow over nearly all of Missouri. This is the map around 1am according to the most recent computer models.

Sunday morning around 10am, the models show that snow is still lingering over all of Missouri, but the southern part of the state will likely see the worst of the accumulations.

By Sunday afternoon around 1pm, the worst of the snow should be past as parts of Missouri start to come out from under the storm system.

Here are the snow totals that the current computer run is showing. PLEASE note that this is just the latest computer model run's estimate. This likely will change (hopefully with lesser totals) once the storm actually arrives.

I think this map is showing a worst-case scenario and it's my belief that the northern half of Missouri will see somewhere between 2 and 6 inches, but even the National Weather Service is saying they don't know what snow totals will be for the state.

What is the National Weather Service in St. Louis saying about this winter storm?

The latest update from the National Weather Service in St. Louis does not show them committing to any snow accumulation totals yet, but they did share a probabilistic snow forecast.

The good news is that the current model runs do not show much of Missouri to be in the risk area for dangerous ice, but if you happen to live in the southern part of the state, you should be prepared in case that happens. The line where ice could cause massive power outages is currently focused on Arkansas and Tennessee, but there are some parts of the Missouri boot heel region that will likely experience at least some ice.

NOAA is so concerned about this winter storm they reportedly are flying hurricane hunter aircraft into it to get better data. This is a storm everyone in Missouri should take very seriously. It could be the worst winter storm of 2026. As the NWS has said, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.