Tornado Threat Rising for Northeast Missouri and West Illinois

We've known for a few days that severe thunderstorms were all but a certainty for many places in Missouri and Illinois this Tuesday. Forecasters now warn that the threat of strong tornadoes is rising in both states, but especially in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has zeroed in on northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois as the most likely locations for damaging storms on Tuesday, March 10, 2026.

The National Weather Service in St. Louis, Missouri now says that the risk of strong tornadoes is elevated as they've increased the expectation of higher tornado wind speeds and wind gusts with EF-2 or higher twisters now possible.

Potentially strong tornadoes are not the only danger with these incoming storms

The National Weather Service in St. Louis now says wind gusts of 70 mph or higher could also impact many areas in Missouri when this cold front moves through. While many fear tornadoes, straight-line winds often do even more damage over a broader area than twisters.

What time are the storms expected to hit northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois?

Forecasters say that late Tuesday into Tuesday evening is the most likely time for severe thunderstorm development, but the timing will depend on when the cold front moves through the Midwest. It is vital that you have a reliable way to get storm warnings from the National Weather Service. Once certain conditions change, the belief is that thunderstorm development will be explosive and could happen quickly. It's rare that we see conditions like this so early in March. Everyone in Missouri and Illinois should be weather-aware Tuesday, but especially in northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois.